Monday, August 4, 2014

Ogos 2014 ramalan El Nino turun ke 50% dari 70%

     Walaupun musim  kering nampak tak berapa reda... Tapi hujan ada turun pasar minggu Raya  jadi El Nino yang diramal semakin lemah...
Berikut petikan dari ABC Australia.

The Bureau of Meteorology has revised down its prediction of an El Nino weather event developing later this year.

Warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean defines El Nino activity, but the latest climate modelling shows temperatures there have cooled.

Last month, the Bureau predicted at least a 70 per cent chance of an El Nino pattern developing in spring.


Manager of climate predictions at the Bureau of Meteorology, Dr Andrew Watkins, says the forecast could still change.

"So we're definitely not in the clear as yet. There is still a 50 per cent chance," he said.

"In a normal year there's about a 25 per cent chance, so we're about double the normal risk of an El Nino.

"So we're certainly not out of the woods yet and indeed five of the eight models we've surveyed from around the world are still suggesting an El Nino may occur."

The Bureau has changed its El Nino 'alert' status to a 'watch', which means that if an El Nino did develop, it's impact wouldn't be as strong.

Jadi , dalam post lepas  , saya pun ada nyatakan El Nino mungkin tak sekuat  1998-1990.

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